China’s economy has rebounded – or has it?


What happened: The Chinese economy rebounded strongly, increasing 18.3% in the first quarter of the year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. CNBC points out that the figure is “slightly below expectations of a 19% increase.”

Retail sales rose 34.2 percent in March, beating growth expectations of 28 percent, despite difficult weather conditions. Industrial production rose 14.1 percent in March from 1.4. percent in the United States. Last month, the United States missed the estimated target of 2.7%.

China’s polled urban unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in March, while the unemployment rate for China’s youngest workers (aged 16 to 24) remained at 13.6%, the data showed.

The Jing socket: The Economist seems skeptical of the Chinese boom and the validity and accuracy of the data, indicating that there are “quirks in the way GDP is reported.”

In 2019, Michael Pettis, a finance professor at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University and a non-resident senior researcher at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policies, took on a similar position. According to Pettis, even well-respected people like Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, “seem to have great doubts about the data and argue that China’s actual growth rate is well below the posted numbers, in large part because that data is tampered with at some level of the collection process.

In Pettis’ view, “if there is indeed a substantial gap between what statisticians actually measure and what they claim to measure”, it is difficult to predict “how long the exaggeration will continue and to what extent. will an adjustment end. undergo.”

“From 2012 to 2019, China’s real growth hit its targets with questionable precision,” says The Economist. “But nominal growth has often not reached the implicit pace of the budget.”

There is probably some truth to these theories that Chinese growth is inflated. However, the domestic recovery has been strong and the economic boom seems far from a mirage.

Without a doubt, not everyone can reap the full benefits of economic growth. Chinese youth are increasingly frustrated by the lack of opportunities, skyrocketing house prices, rising income inequalities and declining social mobility. Moreover, millions of migrant workers who have left the countryside for the cities seem completely forgotten in the new system.

Obviously, not everyone benefits equally from the Chinese economic miracle. And the 60 million children left behind are a testament to the gaps that exist in modern China.

The Jing socket reports on major news and presents our editorial team’s analysis of key implications for the luxury industry. In the recurring column, we analyze everything from product declines and mergers to heated debates popping up on Chinese social media.


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